Global malaria diagnostic and artemisinin treatment commodities demand forecast (Phase 2)

Challenges

Poor demand visibility of key malaria commodities can lead to unhealthy markets with interrupted, limited supply and volatile product prices. To inform decisions and ensure people in need have access to core tools, policymakers and market participants such as manufacturers, distributers and farmers need up-to- date commodity forecasts for ACTs, artemisinin (the active pharmaceutical ingredient of ACTs) and RDTs.

Solutions

To improve visibility on the market demand for malaria commodities, Unitaid finances and helps coordinate demand forecasts to inform policy makers and market participants of the market conditions of ACTs, RDTs and artemisinin. These forecasts are carried out by the Malaria Diagnostic and Artemisinin Treatment Commodities Forecasting Consortium and are overseen by a Steering Committee composed of representatives from Unitaid, the President’s Malaria Initiative, the World Health Organization, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Medicines for Malaria Venture.

In Phase 2 the scope of the forecasting project has been broadened to include malaria RDTs in light of their emerging role in improving case management and in diminishing inappropriate (presumptive) use of ACTs for patients who do not have malaria, and artemisinin monotherapies including injectable artesunate and rectal artesunate for severe malaria. Phase 2 builds on the principles and processes of Phase 1, notably frequent reporting with regular updating of assumptions based on newly available data; harmonizing multiple approaches and triangulating outputs from different models; and creating demand estimates for different scenarios that reflect a range of possible future situations.

Through this continued investment, Unitaid is committed to maintaining a global forecasting service to ensure reliable and timely information is collected and communicated to all actors in the supply chain.

Impact achieved

Malaria Commodities Forecasting Reports and policy briefs